The changing value of modern art: what collectors need to know

Whether you consider yourself a collector or an investor, or you own works of modern art, then you’ll know their value can change over time. 

But you may not be aware quite how much prices have fluctuated in recent years. Guy Vaissiere, Director, Valuations & Fiduciary Services, Europe at Gurr Johns, explains: “Whether it’s jewellery, watches, or fine art, after the Covid pandemic there was a significant uplift in the market, which has since corrected in the last 12 to 18 months.”

Although the market as a whole may have cooled, the pieces you own may still have changed in value. 

For the right piece, appetite is still strong

By way of example, Vaissiere says 20th century artists including Eileen Agar, Emmy Bridgwater, Tristram Hillier, Ithell Colquhoun and John Armstrong have all risen in value recently after a surge of popularity. 

In addition, there have been some standout sales of fine modern art recently that suggest appetite remains strong. 

Ten of the 50 highest-priced lots globally in 2024 were sold in London. At the higher end, these have included Francis Bacon’s 1963 Landscape near Malabata, Tangier, and David Hockney’s 1965 work California, which each sold for nearly £20 million in 2024.

With prices in general lower, auction houses have been taking a more conservative approach to fine art sales. “Auction houses have been very careful with estimates,” Vaissiere says. “They’re making sure they don’t overestimate prices, which could risk items going unsold.” 

In March, auction house Christie’s held a Modern British and Irish Art sale in London. Among the highlights was Sir William Nicholson’s The Lustre Bowl. The still life, which dates back to 1911, was estimated at £120,000 to £180,000, but fetched £1.2 million from a bidder on the night, underscoring the market appetite for exceptional pieces and reaffirming the value of quality over prediction in the art world.

While headline sales tend to make the news, in reality most modern art changes hands at more modest levels. According to The Art Basel & UBS Art Market Report 2025 – a widely read report that is considered a key gauge of the strength of the global market – 95% of modern art works sold globally in 2024 went for under $50,000 (£39,000). Suggesting that even pieces with lower-value can accumulate worth over time.

Protecting your collection against underinsurance 

For collectors, amid fluctuations in prices, there is a significant risk of ‘underinsurance’ - when the value of a claim is greater than the total amount of cover you have on a policy. 

“There’s a lot of movement in the market,” Vaissiere says. “If you haven’t had a valuation for your collection in over ten years, especially with mid-century British artists, you face a significant risk of undervaluing it.” 

Vaissiere gives the example of British surrealist painter Eileen Agar whose works are now changing hands for £30,000 or more. “You used to pick those up for £5,000 to £6,000,” Vaissiere says. “Now, if you had to replace one, it’s £30,000 to £40,000.”

Previously overlooked artists may suddenly see their stock rise if dealers choose to buy some of their works and showcase them. This can mean that the artist’s entire portfolio rises in value. It can have the knock-on effect that one of their paintings that has sat quietly on a collector’s wall for decades is suddenly worth much more than expected. If the collector’s insurance policy hasn’t kept pace, it could leave them exposed should they need to make a claim.

Vaissiere stresses the importance of regular valuations. “A lot of people still don’t realise how significantly prices have moved,” he says. “Whether or not you’re thinking of selling, having an accurate and up-to-date valuation is essential.”

An up-to-date insurance valuation can ensure that you are not caught unawares by the latest moves in the art market and avoid this underinsurance risk.

NFU Mutual Bespoke Home Insurance is specially designed cover for high-value homes with contents over £150,000. We work with carefully selected and trusted valuation partners, who can for a fee, value your collections. Helping give you the reassurance that your most valuable possessions are in safe hands.